China: The Awakening of the Asian Octopus

 It's possible that China might have weapons on Ukraine, but its eyes are definitely set on Taiwan

(Source: BBC News)

Since the invasion of Ukraine started, China has become an increasingly major trading partner for Russia. It’s actually quite natural and unsurprising given the impact of economic sanctions on Russia’s economy. Amidst this reality, now the US is making allegations that Beijing is supplying the Russians with weapons, as well as ammunition. In fact, the U.S. is probing its closest allies on the possibility of imposing new sanctions on China if it happens to be true. However, as expected, Beijing denies these allegations. Furthermore, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on March 5^th, claimed that the Chinese regime “had provided assurances that it would not send weapons to Russia”. Although these statements do not make the West more reassured, it provides it with subtle hints about the real motives driving China’s foreign policy on this conjuncture. First of all, let's take a look at the numbers. China is Russia’s most important trading partner. Indeed, China’s overall trade with Russia hit a record high level of 190 billion dollars in 2020, which represents a 30% increase on the previous year. Moreover, Russians imports from China also increased 13% to 76 billion dollars, as well as its exports, which rose by 43% to 114 billion, including oil and gas. This comes to no surprise, given the economic sanctions on Russia infringed by Western countries, plunging their mutual trade.

It is worth pointing out that China blames Ukraine crisis on some sort of ‘invisible hand’ that keeps pushing for the escalation of the conflict in order to serve and fulfill “certain geopolitical agendas”. In this regard, and with a seemingly questionable approach, Beijing appears to strive for a pacific resolution, in which conflicts, sanctions nor pressure will solve the issue. In fact, according to the Foreign Minister Qin Gang, a dialogue should be held by both parties to pursue peace whilst respecting the legitimate security concerns of Ukraine and Russia. Accordingly, China brought up an ominous 12-point peace plan that in no way sheds light on a pathway toward peace. Beijing’s plan titled ‘The Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis’, reflects China’s concerns about the unfold of the war and the ongoing battlefield conditions in Europe. It also depicts Beijing’s worries on how the causes of Russia’s failure in Ukraine are quite similar to those that hypothetically can threaten its reunification plans involving Taiwan. For instance, the first point of the peace plan advocates for the uphold of the international law, and the respect for the sovereignty of all countries. Nonetheless, it serves only one purpose, to stand as a rhetorical and legal basis to put forward when Xi Jinping decides to take on Taiwan, reminding the international community that it belongs to China because, in Beijing’s viewpoint, it is a part of a sovereign China.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

Therefore, China’s real motives are quite clear. On one hand, Beijing is looking to lend a hand to Putin’s quest on Ukraine, which does not mean necessarily Xi wants Putin to win though. A stalemate might turn out to be more fruitful to the Asian Octopus because it forces the West to keep spending resources, time, and attention to East Europe, while it makes use of its long-stretched tentacles by playing the gambit move for Taiwan, ‘sacrificing’ the Russian pawn. On the other hand, while the ongoing war seems far from over, China can spread its influence on the Asian region by making Russia dependent both economic and commercial-wise. Furthermore, China’s outlook on this war seems obvious. Whether the allied-backed Ukraine or Russia prevails on the battlefield, China believes it will always come out on top, no matter the outcome given that the U.S. and allies in Europe will be weakened as well as the Kremlin. To sum up, the West finds itself in a conundrum. One might ask: should it keep providing Ukraine the means it needs to withstand Russia’s aggression while unintentionally possibly bolstering and strengthening China and hence risking losing Taiwan? It is not all bleak though nor self-evident. The current Russian aggression takes on the form of a proxy war between U.S. and China, and the reality that Ukraine is still standing thanks to NATO is worthwhile mentioning. Therefore, the Russian invasion might have had one positive outcome such as making NATO stronger and more united than ever. For the future of NATO, of Western civilization, and its values, the path is straightforward, is to keep by Ukraine’s side no matter how long it takes or costs. Regarding China, its position on the chessboard may not be as great as it seemed at first. Sacrificing its biggest ally and seeing NATO come to life again had some impact, so that Beijing had to finally wake up after a year of conflict.