O Novo Paradigma da Relação UE-EUA

 “Alliance does not mean vassalage”: Macron's attempt to distance France from the US on the Taiwan issue and be the leader of a more autonomous but divided Europe.

As we may enter a new cold war era, President Macron seeks to assert Europe's strategic autonomy and accelerate its military economy, positioning himself as a leader and embodying a third way. In an interview given on the sidelines of the trip to China, April 5-7, on the plane between Beijing and Guangzhou for the magazine Politico and Les Echos, Macron made a strong statement: he does not want Europe to be a follower or vassal of the US, as NATO is already heavily influenced by American policies. This is particularly relevant in the case of Taiwan, where he wishes to take a more independent approach, not adapting to the US's pace. This aligns with the vision of Charles de Gaulle by the time when we left the NATO armed command in 1966.

Is the French president trying to revive a debate on European strategy in the midst of a geopolitical crisis?

The context of the Taiwan/China issue is the three-day joint exercise carried out by the Eastern Theatre Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan and Matsu on April 8, 2023. This exercise is part of a demonstration of force by a confident Chinese regime, led by Xi Jinping, who appears to be viscerally obsessed with Taiwan. This operation aims to consolidate the challenge to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by changing the balance of power in this vital maritime passage, which Beijing now considers its own. China wants to impose its political agenda and strategic rhythm on the rest of the world and put the Taiwanese people under constant pressure, while carefully staying below the conflict threshold.

Macron's position is not without criticism from European allies and American partners. It is advantageous for China, as it does not want Europe to fall further under US influence, especially with the Biden administration taking a tougher stance. From China's perspective, the European Union is an empire without a country, and especially without troops. It always has to coordinate with all its member countries before making any diplomatic moves. Cleverly, President Xi Jinping plays the old game of "divide and conquer" and appears to have found a European ally in President Macron.

In Berlin, there are sharp criticisms. Criticism even came from the liberals: the Federal Minister of Justice, the liberal Marco Buschmann, did not explicitly name the French president, but in a transparent hint he wrote on Twitter that in times of authoritarian challenges, all states committed to freedom and democracy should cooperate closely.  

Macron appears to be isolated, contradicting the statements of the President of the European Commission in Beijing. There are criticisms regarding the situation in Ukraine, and some agree that Europe should be careful not to be dragged into a major conflict between the US and China. 

For many European countries, the danger of moving away from the existing transatlantic relationship is patent. The anti-Americanism does not unite Europe, it divides it. There is also an economic interest for Europe in ensuring that China does not do to Ukraine what Russia did. Although they became aware of American fickleness during the Trump presidency, almost all Europeans can only envisage their defence within the framework of NATO. Nuclear deterrence sets France apart in this regard.

A strong desire for a European defence exists and was always present in Macron's speaches. Although France is ahead of the rest of the EU in terms of rearmament, it is lagging behind other strategic players. Europeans began to disarm in the early 1970s and continued to do so after September 11, 2001, while countries such as the US, China, Russia, Turkey, and India increased their military spending. Structural disarmament is never caught up in a period of acute crisis. This may be the meaning of the presidential declaration to Politico: "If there is an acceleration of the conflagration of the duopoly, (...) we do not have the time or the means to finance our strategic autonomy and will become vassals." In other words, by 2030, we need to accelerate preparation, hoping to unify European efforts and avoiding being drawn into geographically distant conflicts. This is where there appear to be contradictions in the presidential discourse. The "power of balance" claimed by the Elysée Palace blurs the discourse on "European sovereignty. One example among others: how can one claim to be a responsible power in the Indo-Pacific while leaving the impression of turning away from Taiwan?

In concrete terms, aligning with the United States means defending Taiwan, and defending Taiwan means defending democratic values against authoritarianism.

This is what Macron tried to remind us during a visit to the Netherlands, his will is to maintain the status quo above all.

This position of distance desired by Macron towards the Americans also concerns France's energy dependence, which has increased and which he wishes to reduce, but also France's dependence on the "extraterritoriality of the American dollar". 

"If there is an acceleration of the flare-up of the duopoly, [...] we will not have the time nor the means to finance our strategic autonomy and will become vassals," he said.

In addition, Emmanuel Macron's statements have raised an internal issue about the very role of diplomats and diplomacy. Usually, diplomatic missions suggest to their foreign ministries how to react to changes in the host countries and thus contribute to shaping foreign policy. The government is not obliged to follow the recommendations. Nevertheless, in the present case, Macron's statements have disturbed the Quai d'Orsay and diplomats, for whom consternation is still strong, several weeks later. Of a rare intensity, the controversy sheds a harsh light on the mode of decision of the head of state on the diplomatic field, which he considers more than ever, a year after the beginning of his second term, as belonging to his own square, even if it means maintaining tense relations with professional diplomats, even ignoring the Quai d'Orsay.

Even if they are used to Emmanuel Macron's controversial little phrases, whether on the "brain death" of NATO, the policy of reaching out to Russia, in 2019, or on the war in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, when the head of state urged "not to humiliate" Moscow, an executive of the ministry expressed himself thus: "The president is only doing his head and people are tired of picking up the pieces, to explain to our interlocutors misunderstood positions," says an executive.