Armenia-Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh region: a ceasefire being ignored

(image source: Cartoon Movement) year 2020

The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast was created by the Soviet Union in 1923 and is a part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. The Oblast's population was overwhelmingly ethnic Armenian, with Armenians constituting up 95% of the population, although being legally under Azerbaijani administration. Long-standing ethnic and territorial conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia were restrained throughout the Soviet period. But in 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh regional legislature adopted a resolution declaring a desire to join the Republic of Armenia. As the Soviet Union started to fall apart, this measure caused relations between the two republics to worsen. Both sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which is still ongoing and "cooking" today with no resolution in sight, claim possession of the territory. Despite a cease-fire agreement in effect, violence and skirmishes occur sometimes still to this day.

The recent war in 2020 was set-off by Azerbaijan.  Their goal was to retake the region and it actually worked, having a positive outcome for the country , which was able to restore part of the territory that was taken from them in the 90’s. This recent conflict has shown the ineptitude of the supposed ceasefire that had been in place since 1994 (mentioned in the previous paragraph). This same ceasefire was an agreement made by Russia and is controlled by them as well. But, as we can see, this was not enough to prevent disagreements and attacks between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

(image source: ReliefWeb) year 1990

Of course that with a war come consequences, and the consequences are many. From the displacement of tens of thousands of citizens to the destruction of important infrastructures and homes. Armenia released a statement that said approximately 50 of their own soldiers had been killed in the brutal clashes on the border. While these atrocities are happening, neither side takes the blame. Instead they point the finger at eachother, resulting in the ongoing flare-up. Besides the already mentioned social impact,  the conflict has also influenced the economy of both countries, with Armenia suffering the most economic losses. In 2020, analyst Tatul Manaseryan even said "There is no infrastructure (in Karabakh) that escaped being damaged: gas, water, electricity... hydroelectric facilities and mining structures". Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but, as mentioned before, majority of the citizans who live in this disputed territory are of Armenian ethnicity. With this condition, the ethnic divide and racism comes as a consequence and it becomes even more difficult to achieve a resolution now that the conflict is not only between the elite wanting the strategic territory, but also between civilians who have come to hate eachother more and more everyday.

(image source: npr) year 2021

Let’s not forget the importance of this war outside the walls of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the potential of a much larger crisis as a high possibility.  The area in question provides access to the Caspian Sea and all of its oil reserves, and that comes with an interest from Turkey (already supplying Azerbaijan with military support in the recent war) and Russia (and its security alliance with Armenia) . This was a given considering the complex strategic area and the already formed alliances that continue to grow.

The Ambassador of the Republic of Armenia in Portugal, Garen Nazarian, wrote for “Diário de Notícias” on the 15th of february, 2023. He painted a quite worrying scene, claiming that right now 120,000 citizens of the region are in a siege because the Lachin corridor is still blocked, leaving no existent way for people in the Nagorno-Karabakh area to move to Armenia, giving this is the only road that connects the two. Given this is information is from this year, it's easy to assume that the conflict is far from over.

Even though the war doesn't have an end in the foreseeable future, there are some organizations already taking a stand. On the 12th and 13th of march of this year, the European Parliament published two reports on the relations between the European Union and Azerbaijan and the European Union and Armenia:

• REPORT on EU-Azerbaijan relations

• REPORT on EU-Armenia relations

In these documents, the parlament is clear on its position when it “Strongly condemns the persecution and repression, both domestically and abroad, of political activists, journalists, students, human rights defenders and civil society organisations’ representatives, including those arrested for making public calls for peace during the September 2022 clashes, through intimidation, arrests, torture, detentions, slander campaigns, abductions, travel bans without informing those targeted and lawsuits”(point 36) and “Urges the governments of both countries to fully engage in the drafting of a comprehensive and mutually acceptable peace treaty that should address the security of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of internally displaced persons and refugees and the protection of cultural, religious and historical heritage” (point 11). Taking into account the severity of the matter, it is important that strong legislative bodies like this one take a stand and break their silence.

To sum up, the only favourable way to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is with a cautiously negotiated settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan without leaving out any of the concerns of both, in respect of fairness. They can’t do it alone, only with the help of external actors. But with external actors that have in mind the reconstruction of peace and a resolving nature instead of the ones who tend to aggravate.